25/04/2013

NYRSTAR....UCB...RESULTATS ET COMMENTAIRES..

DE  ING..

 

NYRSTAR: (Precious) metal prices hurt

 

1Q13 take-aways. On the mining side, 1Q13 own production of zinc in concentrate fell 5.6% QoQ to 68kt. The production of all metals was impacted by a temporary suspension of operations at Campo Morado. Nyrstar has kept full-year guidance for all metals unchanged and has good arguments for doing so, as the ‘Mining for Value’ programme at Campo Morado seems successful. Still, gold production could come in below guidance. In addition, the C1 cash cost should be negatively impacted by the suspension, and more importantly, by the lower (precious) metal prices at the current spot levels. On the smelting side, zinc metal production was in line with expectations, down 7% QoQ to 263kt, and full-year guidance was reiterated at 1.0-1.1mt. Further, TCs should be settled a few dollars above the benchmark. Finally, Nyrstar surprised positively by announcing that most of its 2Q13-4Q13 zinc-free metal exposure is hedged at US$2,100-2,200/t.

 

We lower our 2013-14F EBITDA by 16% and 5% to €242m and €333m, respectively, reflecting the fall in (precious) metal prices. We now basically assume that metal prices will stay at the current levels for the rest of the year. Our estimates seem 18% and 14% below Bloomberg consensus, respectively, yet the latter should come down as well.

 

We lower our TP from €4.50 to €4.00 (targeting 2013-14F EV/EBITDA of 5.0x) and maintain our HOLD recommendation. The valuation becomes attractive on 2014F EV/EBITDA of 4.2x with FCF yield of 10% excluding expansion capex. However, macro headwinds that could further impact metal prices, a low ROACE of 1% in 2013F, a leveraged balance sheet (3.1x for 2013F), a lack of visibility on the profitability of the Port Pirie project (likely €280 capex in 2014-16F) and a medium-term share overhang from a 7.9% stake that Nyrstar acquired from Glencore keep us sidelined for now.

 

Price: €3.71 Last published: target price: €4.0; recommendation: HOLD

Filip De Pauw, Brussels +32 2 547 60 97

 

UCB: slow start to the year

 

Growth in 1Q13 was slower than expected with core medicines showing 23% growth down from 50% yoy growth rates seen in 4Q12, even showing a sequential decline from 4Q12 sales. Additionally the allergy season was delayed and Keppra erosion accelerated in Europe. Sequential declines in all core medicines seem disappointing at first sight as Cimzia sales were 8% lower than 4Q12 at €122m versus our expectations of €146m for 1Q13, Vimpat sales were 9% lower than 4Q12 at €88m versus our expectations of €102m for 1Q13 and Neupro sales were 10% lower than 4Q12 at €36m versus our expectations of €41m.

 

Guidance for the full year is repeated as expected guiding for sales of €3.4bn, REBITDA between €680-700m and EPS between €1.90-2.05.. According to UCB, growth in the core medicines was weaker due to several smaller events like formulation changes, smaller destocking events and currency effects while Cimzia is still growing a twice the rate of the average anti-TNF market in 1Q13. Despite reiteration of guidance we expect the share price to move lower today on the back of the weakening growth trends. We will not change our estimates or rating as we believe the weakening growth is a one off effect which will subside in the quarters ahead.

 

UCB €47.41; Last published target price: €56; recommendation: Buy

Fabian Smeets, Amsterdam +31205013478

 

MON COMMENTAIRE.......

NYRSTAR A SUIVRE DE PRES ,IL SEMBLE QUE LES MATIERES SE REPRENNENT...PAS CHER!!

UCB... OCCASION DE RENFORCER, LE FUTUR EST ROSE !!!!!  BUY.

 

10:43 Écrit par swingteam-cc | Lien permanent | Commentaires (0) |  Facebook |

Les commentaires sont fermés.