26/03/2012

dexia..CHAUD devant !!

 

DEXIA: A game of high stakes

 

According to De Tijd CEO Pierre Mariani threatens to convene meeting of the Board Directors to discuss potential bankruptcy of Dexia SA (listed Holding) in case the Belgian government does not provide guarantees at sustainable conditions. This is unconfirmed.

In our view a failure of Dexia would simply be too large and too damaging for fragile sentiment in Europe, as such policymakers will want to prevent this at all cost. As such we expect Dexia to avoid failure but this will likely come at a cost to (minority) shareholders. According to Le Figaro Belgium plans to renegotiate the guarantees with France, a renegotiation is likely to be tough, especially following earlier agreement on guarantee split following nationalization of Dexia Bank Belgium. In our view a solution will involve greater role of EU members States and European Commission given current deadlock. We remain very cautious on Dexia share as equity of the group is thin and greater EU involvement will involve likely further burden sharing of shareholders. The split over €90bn guarantees between Belgium (60.5%), France (36.5%) and Luxembourg (3%) is still not officially approved by the European Commission. Short term funding needs are €88bn and pro-forma balance sheet is €303bn (year-end 2011: €413bn) with pro-forma core capital of €5.6bn (Core Tier 1 ratio 7.3%).

CEO of Dexia already mentioned on several occasions that the burden on the group from the financial compensation of the funding guarantees is unsustainable. Last week De Tijd published an article that instead of paying cash to the governments in could service funding costs by issuing warrants, ie dilutive for existing minority shareholders. Unclear is size, strike price etc. This week it is expected that the auditors of the group will make a statement on 2011 accounts. In our view without approvals on State guarantees it seems a ‘going concern’ Auditors report is unlikely, putting more pressure on Dexia Sa, Belgium government and EC over State guarantees. The discussion with France over guarantee split seems stuck and an alternative scenario is being considered, where Italy (Crediop), Spain (Sabadell) and Germany (Kommunalbank) are asked to provide State guarantees on funding of Dexia’s subsidiaries. Given sovereign concerns over Italy and especially Spain we have our reservations over willingness to participate.

Price: €0.29. Last published: target price: €0.10; recommendation: SELL

10:32 Écrit par swingteam-cc | Lien permanent | Commentaires (1) |  Facebook |

Commentaires

Encore merci a vous pour cet excellent sejour.
Ne changez rien.

Écrit par : generique | 18/04/2012

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