24/08/2011

AGEAS...ING+ DEGROOF ADVISE.

de ING

AGEAS: Review 1H11: Strong message on solvency

Following the very weak share price performance we expect a strong share price performance today following strong statements on solvency and encouraging trends in insurance operations especially at non-life.

Ageas reported net insurance result, excluding the Greek impairment, in line with our and consensus forecasts at YOY to €261m (+45% YOY) vs INGF €264m and consensus €255m. The Greek impairment amounted to €150m, we expected €156-195m (consensus €170m); impairment based on fair value as of June 30 for maturities up to 2020. The net reported profit, including the volatile General Account, came in at net loss of €58.8m. However, when adjusting for Greek impairment of €150m and charge related to Tier 1 instrument of €40m the reported profit is €131.2m compared to INGF of loss of €51m and consensus profit of €67m. The beat is explained by lower valuation of RPN(I) liability and higher valuation of BNP call options

Ageas made strong statements on solvency and to underline this announced a share buyback program of €250m (after SBB and including 1.5% treasury shares Ageas will hold 10%). After the SBB discretionary capital will amount €0.75bn (pro-forma 1H11) and it will have no impact on Insurance solvency of 207% (1H11). Solvency level was stronger than we expected (201%) and increased versus March level of 201%. Shareholders’ equity came in at €2.89 per share (€7.5bn), in line with expectations and consensus. Ageas also indicated that exposures to peripheral Europe have been reduced from net €5.5bn at end of 1Q11 to €4.3bn per August 19, thus making use of ECB bond purchases of Italian and Spanish bonds. On FY outlook Ageas mentions that including the Greek impairment (net €150m) it expects the insurance net profit to be in line with 2010, which is in line with our FY2011 forecast. Insurance results: we believe to main items is the improvement in the combined ratio QOQ from 102.6% to 99.8% and life technical result in Belgium. The performance in Belgium remains mixed tough with deterioration in workers compensation (adjusted improvement). In the UK there was strong improvement QOQ from 106% to 97.2%. Conference call is at 9:30 CET (+44 20 775 099 26 /+32 2 400 2525 /pin code 415621#).

Price: €1.09. Last published: target price: €2.8; recommendation: BUY

The facts: Ageas released its 1H11 results this morning.
Our analysis: In 1H11 net loss amounted to EUR -58.8m vs EUR -115m ex-pected. As the consensus range was very large, we must say that the results were only slightly better than expected. Some analysts did not include any impairment on Greek debts, which amounted to EUR 150m in 2Q11 in the results release.
Non-life performance further improved on the back of a recovery in the UK. The Group combined ratio for the second quarter improved in comparison to the previ-ous quarter and declined below 100%.
The life insurance net results included the EUR 150m impairment on the sovereign Greek bonds in the Belgian and in the Continental Europe portfolio. Excluding this item, the Belgian operations improved compared to last year, Asian operations were resilient and maintained the strong results of last year and Portugal per-formed well.
The General account’s net result amounted to EUR -170 and remained quite vola-tile as expected. The 1H11 includes a negative contribution in 1Q and a positive contribution in 2Q11.
The fair value of the RPN(I) liability increased by EUR 118m to EUR 583m in the first half of 2011, mainly due to an increase in the market value of the CASHES financial instrument. In addition, the General Account includes a provision of EUR 40m and a charge related to the obligation to acquire the Fortis Bank Tier 1 bond at par following the non-call by Fortis Bank.

Conclusion & Action: Excluding the impairment on the Greek sovereign debt and the negative contribution of the General Account (Fortis Legacy), the results in insurance operations performed well. A conference call is scheduled this morning at 9.30 am CET, following which we will revise our forecasts and target price.

Le 24/08/2011 à 09:55

Les Bourses européennes hésitantes en début de séance

 

par Raoul Sachs

PARIS (Reuters) - Les Bourses européennes sont hésitantes mercredi en début de séance, partagées entre les anticipations de mesures de soutien à l'économie américaine que la Fed pourrait annoncer vendredi et un stress persistant lié à la croissance chancelante et à la crise des dettes souveraines.

Vers 09h30, l'indice CAC 40, après une ouverture en hausse puis un passage dans le rouge, avance de 0,31% à 3.093,85 points

Londres recule légèrement de 0,23%, Francfort prend 0,24%, Milan 0,71%, Madrid 0,12%.

L'EuroStoxx 50 prend 0,09%, l'EuroFirst 300 perd 0,14%.

L'anxiété demeure sur les marchés, rapportent des professionnels, la décision de l'agence Moody's d'abaisser d'un cran la note de la dette du Japon, à Aa3, étant venue rappeler l'absence de solution pérenne à la crise des dettes souveraines.

"Les actions donnent peut-être l'impression de retomber sur leurs pieds, mais le stress financier est toujours à la hausse", disent les stratégistes taux de la Société générale, qui s'inquiètent de l'écartement des spreads CDS et cash des banques et de leurs difficultés de financement à long terme.

Les responsables de l'allocation d'actifs de Société générale notent de leur côté que les hedge funds ont ouvert des positions nettes vendeuses d'une ampleur comparable à celles de 2008 (en pleine crise financière, NDLR) sur le segment le plus liquide du marché actions, c'est-à-dire sur le S&P 500.

Ils ajoutent que les mêmes hedge funds ont débouclé leurs positions nettes vendeuses sur les emprunts d'Etat américains.

"Les craintes d'une récession ont anéanti les anticipations de hausse des taux obligataires de même que la récente décision de la Fed de maintenir ses taux bas au moins jusqu'en 2013", disent-ils.

L'euro recule contre le dollar et s'échange autour de 1,44 contre 1,4432 dollar mardi soir.

Les rendements des emprunts d'Etat allemand et français à 10 ans restent proches de leurs plus bas historique, respectivement à 2,12% et à 2,78%.

Les investisseurs attendent dans la matinée l'indice Ifo du climat des affaires en Allemagne, puis les commandes de biens durables en juillet aux Etats-Unis.

Edité par Dominique Rodriguez

© 2011 Reuters -

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