02/08/2011

9H27...

DE ING CE MATIN...

BEKAERT: Another large cut in estimates

1H results came in below expectations, mainly due to weaker volumes/pricing in sawing wire. With very low visibility on 2H11, we cut our 2011-12F EPS by c.30%. The shares should be dead money until we get confirmation that demand in the solar space recovers, in our view. In the medium term, we still believe the current product/geographical positioning and growth initiatives should generate GDP+ growth. We cut our 12-mth TP by 30% to €52.0, targeting 2012F EV/EBITDA of 6.5x, and maintain our BUY rating on valuation.

Price: €39.9. Last published: target price: €52; recommendation: Buy

 

 

D’IETEREN: Soft patch in new car registrations continues

Febiac reported yesterday after the market close that Belgian new car registrations in July dropped 11.3% YoY to 34,885. This number confirms June’s negative trend (-10%) and came in below INGF (-3%) In addition, D’Ieteren market share was up from 18.6% in July 2010 to 21.3% (just above INGF of 21%), but was down from the 22.6% reported in June 2011. Conclusion: for now we don’t have to materially change our FY11F estimates, but if the current trend continues for 1 or 2 months, consensus estimates for D’Ieteren Auto division should be revised downwards.

Price: €46.2. Last published: target price: €55.0; recommendation: HOLD

 


KPN: T-Mobile and Vodafone data price increase, powering our conviction

After the Q2 event we published a high conviction report on KPN maintaining our buy rating with 35% upside. We are bullish because finally three things come together: 1) Addressing concerns about the guidance (outlook confirmed, more clarity about EBITDA improvements in 2H 2) Strong visible profitable growth for mobile international (strong underlying growth Germany (7.5%) combined with high margins 41.8% in Q2 and addition strong guidance mobile international.) 3) Stabilization of the Dutch Telco Business (no acceleration but a continuation of the substitution trend and out of bundle revenues relatively modest (22% of consumer wireless rev) and the right data pricing strategy to address this.)

KPN will introduce new price plans from September 5 for the brands Hi and KPN Mobile. The use of the mobile data will get more expensive by lowering data limits and making the data pricing more variable. We believe this is the right strategy to better monetize date growth and addressing concerns about the substitution of voice and sms by data.

Next to Vodafone, which increased its data pricing quickly after the KPN data pricing change, the 3rd player in T-Mobile will also increase data pricing starting August 15. So all the network operators followed after the market leader KPN raised data prices. This is very good news for the Dutch Telco market and mitigates even more concerns about the stabilization of Dutch Telco business.

With the 3 things coming together investors can focus again what KPN is really about: sustainable generous returns (ING 2012F SHR 12.4%) and profitable growth potential, especially in Germany. We expect a re-rating based upon 4 things: 1) consensus number of Group EBITA will go up (now below consensus) 2) consensus numbers Mobile International EBITDA will go up for 2011-2013 and will be more in line with ING’s higher then consensus estimates 3) We expect pre buying ahead of the data price increase positively effecting the Q3 4) Less concerns about Q4 with competition adopting the new data pricing strategy and good E-plus smart phone growth in Germany

Price: €9.88. Last published: target price: €13.50; recommendation: BUY


09:42 Écrit par swingteam-cc | Lien permanent | Commentaires (0) |  Facebook |

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