20/06/2011

10H26...-1.5%

AVIS DE DEGROOF SUR BEKAERT (59.8) ACCUMULER TARGET 80 vs 90

The facts: We decided to review our estimates on Bekaert due to the uncertain-ties surrounding the pricing for sawing wire in China since this market experiences increasing competition from new entrants (Xingda, Henan Hengxing,...). Based on these changes our DCF model indicated a New TP at 80 from EUR 90.
Our analysis: Although the decline of margins in sawing wire was anticipated (so far we assumed Bekaert’s Rebit in Asia to decline by 5% in FY11), the recent news flow regarding the price trend led us to be more cautious in our estimates. Hence we decided to accelerate in our model the decline in sales and margins in sawing wire in Asia. Sawing wire sales were cut by 12% on average and recurring EBIT (Rebit) by 23% for the period 2011-2014. Hence, on average, the margin in sawing wire in Asia were cut by 13% from 65%(e) in FY10 to 33% in FY14 (was 38% in our previous scenario).

The impact of these changes on the consolidated figures is shown in the table above. On Average adjusted EPS were revised down by about 15% for the 2011-2014.
Conclusion & Action: Following the price adjustment since early May we estimate that the share price already discounts a bearish scenario for Bekaert (we estimate that current share price implies a Rebit margin of 27% in 2012-2014 in Asia from 37.7% in FY10). Although we must admit that uncertainty is rather high and that we will have to wait until end July and the publication of the 1H11 results to get some clarifications. Meanwhile, we keep our positive stance on the share. The growth pattern of the BRIC countries will stay high in the foreseeable future. Therefore, we still estimate that Bekaert’s strong exposure towards emerging markets (80% of 1H10 combined sales) remains favourable for future value creation.

VOICI CE QUE J'EN PENSAIS LE 9/06..(66€)

Sent: Thursday, June 09, 2011 10:16 AM

Subject: un avis ???

 

Graphiquement …pas terrible ; mais ça reste quand même un des fleurons ???  niveaux ??  retour vers 53 - 55 € ???  W inversé ??


 

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