07/03/2011

ATTENTION AUX TAUX!!!

DE MERRILL CE MATIN..

Reason for Report: Economic Analysis

Global: Strong vigilance
While the growth data have improved, we believe the global economy is not as strong as the various purchasing managers indexes (PMI) suggest.
Moreover, rising oil prices should put a dent in the recovery.

United States: Interesting times
The oil price run-up thus far is likely to curb, but not stop, the moderate growth recovery. However, events in the Middle East have created considerable downside risk to the US and global economy.

Canada: The 300
The BoC appears content to leave policy rates where they are until there is evidence the global economy - read US here - is at hand. As such, the rates market seems destined to follow the 2003-2004 pattern.

Euro area: What made the ECB change tack?
The ECB concluded that its current policy settings were no longer appropriate, reverting to the "strong vigilance" codeword. We look for a 25bp hike on 7 April. We believe that this first move will not be a one-off.

Japan: Impact of energy and food inflation on CPI It is estimated a simultaneous increase of 10% in both crude oil and food prices would drive up overall consumer prices (the headline CPI) by around 0.35ppt. But such an increase would have an extremely small impact on the core-core CPI. By comparison, food would have a slightly larger impact on the headline CPI.

Australia: Reading the wall of data
We try to make sense of where the Australian economy sits after a cascade of new data.

Emerging Asia: A more resilient consumer Encouragingly, consumer spending is becoming increasingly resilient: the consumption "beta" is already back at pre-crisis levels. Sustained high oil prices are the main risk to our call for Asia to grow at trend in 2011; however, strong momentum and stable consumption should help buffer the oil price shock.

Emerging EMEA: EEMEA: Stagflation and financial flows We delve into the recent trends in financial account developments in EEMEA and likely changes in a stagflation backdrop. Important trends supporting inflows in the last decade have lost momentum. In our view, Turkey and Poland are most vulnerable in a scenario of weak global growth and higher risk aversion.

LatAm: Oil shock would have a limited impact on exports As the oil shock becomes more persistent, the question is whether it will dent global growth, and if lower global growth would ultimately affect LatAm exports. We find a limited impact of global growth on LatAm exports.

INDICES A 12H09..

BEL 20 * 2688.89 -3.13 -0.47 %  
AEX 25 * 367.32 -0.28 -0.17 %  
CAC 40 * 4007.41 -53.35 -0.32 %  
Euronext 100 * 719.48 -6.21 -0.25 %  
Next 150 * 1,727.14 -1.48 -0.09 %  
DAX 30 7172.25 -6.65 -0.09 %  
MIB 30 22,298.02 159.58 0.72 %  
IBEX 35 10522.60 23.90 0.23 %  
SMI 6,517.15 -13.39 -0.21 %  
SLI 1,048.19 -0.65 -0.06 %  
SPI 5,907.99 -8.79 -0.15 %  
FTSE™ 100 6012.35 21.96 0.37 %  
Dow Jones * 12,169.88 -88.32 -0.72 %  
Nasdaq 100 2,359.96 0.00 0.00 %  
Nasdaq 2,784.67 0.00 0.00 %  
OMX Nordic 40 1,083.23 5.17 0.48 %  
OMX Helsinki 25 2,585.91 17.51 0.68 %  
OMX Stockholm 30 1,120.64 8.26 0.74 %  
OMX Copenhagen 20 470.09 0.64 0.14 %

12:10 Écrit par swingteam-cc | Lien permanent | Commentaires (0) |  Facebook |

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