02/03/2011

Marchés en ROUGE...à 9h55

reco de ING ce matin...

BEKAERT (BUY, TP €98.0): Company continues to fire on all cylinders

For further information contact analyst: Filip De Pauw, Brussels (32) 2 547 60 97

·       We keep Bekaert as a Benelux top pick and increase our TP to €98.0 after the company reported better-than-expected results (39% 4Q10 sales growth and a 17.4% 2H10 REBIT margin), improved balance sheet strength and provided guidance for a strong 1H11 performance while trading at attractive multiples.

·       Bekaert reported better-than-expected results, with a 39% growth in 4Q10 sales to €861m (vs consensus forecast of +24%) and a €301m 2H10 REBIT, which implies a 17.4% margin (90bp above consensus forecast). Main beat vs expectations came again from Asia-Pacific, with a 67% 4Q10 sales growth and a 37.9% REBIT margin (vs 37.4% in 1H10). Automotive (tyre cord) and solar energy related products (sawing wire) reported the highest growth, as expected. 2H10 REBIT margins in the rest of the world came in slightly below our estimates. Bottom line, Bekaert reported a 124% FY10 normalised EPS growth to €6.68 (reported EPS was €6.21), 4% above INGF. Net debt came in above our forecast at €578m, but net debt/EBITDA declined further from 1.2x in 2009 to 0.8x in 2010. Unlike Bekaert (management typically has one to two months visibility), management guided for another strong performance in 1H11 and guided for a continued record capex (c.€250m) and R&D (c.€100m) in 2011 to support future growth. We understood during the analysts’ meeting that the company’s cautiousness post 1H11 was mainly a call on macro uncertainty.

·       Based on the strong 2H10 results and comforting 1H11 outlook, we revise upwards our 2011F and 2012F normalised EPS by 6% and 5% to €7.03 and €7.65, respectively. Our estimates are c.5-6% above consensus. Note that we assume a 320bp REBIT margin decline in 2011F in Asia-Pacific. If Asia-Pacific margins remain flat, there is c.21% upside potential to our EPS estimate.

·       On our new estimates, Bekaert’s valuation seems attractive, in spite of the significant share price performance over the past 18 months. The shares trade at 11.2x 2011F and 10.3x 2012F PER, 6.1x 2011F and 5.8x 2012F EV/EBITDA (adjusted for JVs and LT pension liabilities). These multiples imply an 11% to 19% discount to European cap goods, whereas we argue the stock deserves to trade at least in line (2010 post tax ROCE of 17%). Our TP implies a valuation of 7.5x 2011F adjusted EV/EBITDA (unchanged), in line with European cap goods. Next trigger for the shares is the Capital Markets Event of 3-4 March in Slovakia (with a focus on sawing wire).

QUANT A UCB...2 AVIS TRES DIFFERENTS CE MATIN....

ING  objectif 24

DEGROOF  objectif  36

 

UCB (HOLD, TP EUR 24.0): Ok results, but quality of beat is low 

For further information contact analyst: Fabian Smeets, Amsterdam (31) 20 501 3478 

               ·       Although UCB’s results were already pre-announced in January the company still managed to positively surprise consensus with revenues of EUR 3218m, REBITDA of EUR 731m and Core EPS of EUR 1.99 versus consensus estimates of EUR 3123m, 705m and 1.82 respectively. Sales of CVN were in line with expectations, while Keppra and Venlafaxine XR sales were above expectations as generics entered later than we had initially expected, which is why we believe the quality of the earnings beat is low. Still we believe generics will enter the market place more aggressively during 2011 which will likely be another “lost” year in terms of top and bottom line growth.

               ·       This view is confirmed by the guidance, as the company is guiding for revenues between 3.0-3.1bn, REBITDA between 650-680m and core EPS between 1.60-1.70, which is in line with consensus estimates. Current consensus is looking for revenues of EUR 3bn in 2011 with REBITDA of 671m and core EPS of EUR 1.72. We believe it will be difficult to achieve the guidance as the company will likely make higher R&D costs in 2011 due to the launch of phase 3 clinical trials for Brivaracetam and Vimpat. Additionally, increasing entry of generics for Keppra will hamper top line growth potential and we therefore see some downside risks in today’s guidance.  

 

Et celui de DEGROOF…. Objectif  36 €

 


UCB
FY10 results in line and growth prospects in 2012
The results were slightly better than forecasted and, more importantly, the FY11 outlook was in line with our and market consensus. In addition, UCB points for a 10-year growth starting from 2012 onwards.
An analyst meeting is scheduled in London tomorrow at 1:00 pm London time. We maintain our buy rating and our target price of EUR 36.

The facts: This morning UCB released its FY10 results.

Our analysis: Sales increased by 3% to EUR 3.2bn and was fairly above target and market expectations. Cimzia, Vimpat and Neupro continued their growth, in line with forecasts. Keppra did much better than anticipated thanks to a delay of the entry of generic competition in Europe.

The EBIT includes EUR -263m non-recurring items, as announced in January 2011, resulting from impairment tests and the cession of 3 sites in Italy and Ger-many.

The pipeline includes positive news flow, among other the submission for regula-tory approval of Cimzia in Japan. 7 projects are in phase III and 6 projects in phase II.

The company outlook points to a FY11 lower than FY10, in line with our and con-sensus estimates. Total revenues are expected to be in the EUR 3.1bn and EUR 3.0bn range, recurring EBITDA EUR 650-680m and core EPS (our adj EPS, which excludes the amortisation of intangible assets) between EUR 1.60 and EUR 1.70.

The net debt position end FY10 was better than expected at EUR 1.65bn vs EUR 1.79bn expected.

Conclusion & Action: The results were slightly better than forecasted and, more importantly, the FY11 outlook was in line with our and market consensus. In addition, UCB points for a 10-year growth starting from 2012 onwards.

An analyst meeting is scheduled in London tomorrow at 1:00 pm London time. We maintain our buy rating and our target price of EUR 36.

Libellé Dernier Var.
EUR/USD 1.3777 0%
Euribor 1 an 1.773 0%
Gold Index 1428.80 -0.39%
Pétrole (New York) 99.39 -0.24%

 

 

les INDICES A 9H54...

BEL 20 * 2674.90 -37.77 -1.39 %  
AEX 25 * 363.99 -3.96 -1.08 %  
CAC 40 * 4025.27 -41.88 -1.03 %  
Euronext 100 * 719.96 -8.10 -1.11 %  
Next 150 * 1710.61 -22.64 -1.31 %  
DAX 30 7129.96 -93.34 -1.29 %  
MIB 30 21,892.04 -335.19 -1.51 %  
IBEX 35 10585.10 -176.80 -1.64 %  
SMI 6,549.32 -70.04 -1.06 %  
SLI 1,042.59 -14.92 -1.41 %  
SPI 5,894.44 -67.67 -1.13 %  
FTSE™ 100 5869.31 -66.45 -1.12 %  
Dow Jones * 12,058.02 -168.32 -1.38 %  
Nasdaq 100 2,315.26 0.00 0.00 %  
Nasdaq 2,737.41 0.00 0.00 %  
OMX Nordic 40 1,084.52 -13.50 -1.23 %  
OMX Helsinki 25 2,570.01 -35.62 -1.37 %  
OMX Stockholm 30 1,106.38 -12.78 -1.14 %  
OMX Copenhagen 20 465.28 -5.16 -1.10 %

09:55 Écrit par swingteam-cc | Lien permanent | Commentaires (0) |  Facebook |

Les commentaires sont fermés.