TOMTOM..pour ceux qui aiment un peu de risque...


TOMTOM (BUY, TP €9.25): 4Q10 results; PNDs and OPEX overshadow positive trends Automotive and LIVE services; outlook below

For further information contact analyst: Marc Zwartsenburg, Amsterdam (31) 20 563 8721

·       There is a conference call at 14.00 CET. Dial-in number: +31 (0)20 796 5213 (NL), +44 (0)20 8817 9301 (UK), and +1 718 354 1226 (US).

·       We see confirmation for the medium-to-longer-term growth potential ie the upside potential in Automotive and LIVE services but in the short term a weak PND market and surge in OPEX overshadow the medium-term positives. This as the outlook for 2011 is below current consensus due to lack of leverage.

·       EBIT for 4Q10 came in a touch below at €65m vs INGF €67m and cons €72m but net profit was higher but driven by one-offs ie lower tax rate (one-off) and positive FX result. As such the quality of Q4 earnings is lower than perceived.

·       Outlook for 2011 disappoints coming in below expectations. TomTom guides for sales and EPS broadly in line with 2010. This implies and EPS of c.€0.49 vs a consensus of €0.55. As we already flagged 2011 is a transition year where weakish PND sales and higher OPEX due to higher marketing spend cannot yet be compensated by positive trends in Automotive and LIVE services. If the shares trade down on the results we  would see this as a buying opportunity as the LT trends are in tact and shares still attractively valued at c.10-10.5x PER11F ie discount of c.20% vs Garmin.

·       Cash flow was strong and net debt ended at €294m vs INGF at €348m and Q3 at €416m.

·       PND sales disappointed strongly in Q4 with Europe down 19% in Q4 vs Q3 -11% while North America came in at -24% even vs -10% in Q3. We estimate that the number of units sold for TomTom in 2010 came out at c.11m which is below gfuidance at the beginning of 2010 of around 11.5m (2009 figure).

·       Automotive was strong in Q4 with sales at €55m (+52%) vs cons at €48m.

·       The gross margin was a touch weaker at 46% vs INGF at 47.0% and consensus at 46% (Q3 at 47.6%).

·       OPEX came in much higher at €172m vs INGF at €158m and consensus at €153m (Q3 at €123m). The surge in marketing spend was even stronger than anticipated ie €48m reported in Q4 vs INGF €44m and cons €40m. Also R&D was above.

TomTom: chute de 29% du bénéfice net au 4e trimestre

DJ TomTom: chute de 29% du bénéfice net au 4e trimestre


AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--TomTom NV (Tom2.AE) a annoncé vendredi un recul de 29% de son bénéfice net au quatrième trimestre, en raison de la hausse de ses charges d´exploitation liées à la commercialisation ainsi qu´à la recherche et développement.

Le chiffre d´affaires du quatrième trimestre s´est établi à 516 millions d´euros, soit un recul de 3%, et le bénéfice net a atteint 52 millions d´euros.

Pour 2011, le fabricant néerlandais de systèmes de navigation prévoit un chiffre d´affaires et un résultat par action globalement stables par rapport à 2010.

(Version française Aurélie Henri)


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 18, 2011 03:26 ET (08:26 GMT)

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