10/02/2011

BONJOUR...JE CROIS A UN RECUL (prises de bénéfices)

MAUVAIS CHIFFRES EN CISCO après cloture US ,  cours -10%

 

quelques analyses de ING ce matin...

ArcelorMittal (BUY, TP €32.0): TP increased to €32.0 on stronger outlook

For further information contact analyst: Filip De Pauw, Brussels (32) 2 547 60 97

·       Results: 4Q10 normalised EBITDA (ex. Aperam) came in at US$1.63bn (reported US$1.85bn), in line with INGF (US$1.63bn) and the US$1.5-1.9bn guidance range. 4Q10 net loss was US$780m (INGF net loss US$699m), impacted by US$787m in other financial costs and a US$547m net loss on Aperam, yet compensated by a US$450m tax benefit. 4Q10 cash flow was a solid US$3.3bn, which translated into a net debt decline from US$22.1bn to US$19.7bn (INGF US$20.6bn). FY10 shipments were 85mt (+22%), EBITDA (ex. Aperam) was US$8.5bn (+52%) and net income was US$2.9bn (EPS of US$1.93), up from US$157m in 2009. Own iron ore production was 48.9mt (+30%).

·       Outlook: CEO Lakshmi Mittal seems more confident on the global economic outlook, in our view. Management expects 6.5-7.0% apparent steel consumption growth in 2011. China is expected to remain strong (+7%), in spite of monetary easing. The US outlook seems to improve (+9-10%), with a strong US Architecture Billing index (ABI) in January (leading indicator for non-residential construction by six to nine months). Growth in Europe seems more muted (+5-5.5%) due to higher unemployment and government deleveraging. In all geographies (apart from Brazil), apparent steel demand should be underpinned by low inventory levels (potential restocking). CFO Aditya Mittal added that the flat product inventory bubble in Brazil should end in 2Q11 (return of price premium expected). The CEO commented that the higher raw material prices remain a challenge, but added that the US$280/t US spot sheet price increase since November (impact on pricing mainly in 2Q11) recovered much of the margin loss in 2H10. Guidance: (1) EBITDA in a US$2.0-2.5bn range (above INGF US$2.0bn), (2) 1Q11 capacity utilisation rate at c.76%rate (from 69% in 4Q10), (3) 1Q11 net debt above the 3Q10 level, due to working capital requirements, Baffinland acquisition and higher FY11 capex (US$5.0bn) and (4) FY11 10% increase in own iron ore production.

·       Rating and target price: We increase our TP from €31.0 to €32.0, based on 6.0x 2012F EV/EBITDA. Our investment case is based on: (1) strategy of growth (36% of shipments in emerging markets; expansion capex focus on Brazil and India); (2) upstream integration (to stabilise margins at higher levels); (3) cost leadership (target of US$2bn additional cost savings should strengthen AM’s above industry average profitability). We maintain our BUY rating.

·       Share price trigger: Higher visibility on 2H11 EBITDA, after 1Q11 EBITDA guidance and higher spot steel prices provided some comfort for 1H11. Note that the US ABI bodes well for 2H11. Also the previous economic cycle suggest recoveries last longer than two quarters. AM’s EBITDA increased for five consecutive quarters as of 1Q06 and peaked in the 10th (3Q08).

 

KBC (HOLD, TP €28.0): 4Q10 - Strong interest results and stabilization of credit quality ex-Ireland

For further information contact analyst: Albert Ploegh, Amsterdam (31) 20 563 8748

·       Our first impression is that 4Q10 results were better than expected. Capitalisation ratios are in line with expectations and loan quality (with exception of Ireland) held up better than expected. No news on planned IPO of CSOB (ready to launch) or closing of KBL Private Banking disposal (in the months to come). A conference call is scheduled at 9:30 AM CET. The dial-in number is +44 207 162 0077 / +32 2 290 1407

·       The 4Q10 results were better than expected, partly helped by low taxes (basically zero) and higher exceptional items. Underlying net profit came in at €168m vs INGF €76m and reported net profit at €724m vs INGF €420m. The underlying beat is explained by 1) better net interest income (historical high margins), 2) lower than expected loan losses (excluding Ireland) and 3) very low tax rate. The reported profit beat is explained by non-recurring items.

·       The Belgium business (underlying net profit €255m vs INGF 217m) and CEE (€131m vs INGF €87m) operations beat expectations, while Merchant Banking was in line (interest income stronger than expected offset by higher costs and loan losses).

·       Loan loss provisions: asset impairments came in at €510m (INGF €540m) or 91bps of RWAs vs 117bp in 2009. The losses in CEE were lower than expected at €85m (INGF €129m and 3Q10 at €142m). The main reason is improvement in corporate segment in Hungary and SMEs in Czech Republic. Of the total loan book non-performing loans remained almost stable at 4.1% (+10bps QOQ vs +30bps QOQ in 3Q10). The only area of deterioration is Merchant Banking, but this was already flagged by the additional provisioning announcement for Ireland. In Ireland (loan book €17.2bn), NPL increased QOQ from 9.0% to 10.3% (INGF 9.8%) and coverage ratio improved from 29% to 42% (INGF 44%). The proportion of high risk loans increased 100bps QOQ to 16.2%vs +40bps QOQ increase in the prior quarter.

·       Book value (32.8, per share) and core tier 1 ratio (10.9% ex announced disposals) in line with expectations. The exposure to Greece, Portugal and Spain has been reduced from 5.3bn to 5.0bn.

 

UMICORE (HOLD, TP €35.0): 2H10 results seem in-line at best

For further information contact analyst: Filip De Pauw, Brussels (32) 2 547 60 97

·       Umicore 2H10 results came in line with expectations (at best).

·       2H10 REBIT amounted to €156m, 3% below INGF of €161m. Catalysis came in above expectations (€39m vs. INGF €36m), but Energy Materials (€20m vs. INGF €23m) and Recycling (€93m vs. INGF €98m) came in below.

·       FY10 reported EPS was €2.20, in line with our forecast (€2.21).

·       Net debt came in significantly above expectations (€360m vs. INGF €251m), due to much higher working capital needs (related to the rising precious metals prices).

·       As anticipated, the outlook was not quantified. Umicore anticipates further revenue and earnings growth in 2011 (we anticipate 11% EPS growth). Underlying demand should strengthen further for most of Umicore’s product business, while the supply conditions for the various recycling activities are expected to remain highly supportive.

·       Conclusion: after the strong share price performance in the previous months, the in-line 2H10 results, the higher than anticipated net debt and non quantified outlook provide few triggers for further consensus EPS upgrades. We expect some profit taking today.

·       We have a HOLD rating for valuation reasons, since the stock trades at 9.8x EV/EBITDA and 15.6x PER 2011F on consensus estimates. These historically high multiples, in our view, reflect Umicore’s outlook for secular growth, but suggest limited upside in terms of multiple expansion. At our €35 target price, Umicore would trade in line with Johnson Matthey at 8.7x 2011F EV/EBITDA.

·       A conference call is scheduled at 14.00 CET.

INDICES A 10H12..

BEL 20 * 2695.22 -24.72 -0.91 %  
AEX 25 * 367.04 -2.14 -0.58 %  
CAC 40 * 4068.37 -22.37 -0.55 %  
Euronext 100 * 727.62 -4.13 -0.56 %  
Next 150 * 1731.57 -14.75 -0.84 %  
DAX 30 7297.63 -23.27 -0.32 %  
MIB 30 22,458.04 -225.42 -0.99 %  
IBEX 35 10814.90 -120.70 -1.10 %  
SMI 6,597.94 -33.70 -0.51 %  
SLI 1,062.01 -6.90 -0.65 %  
SPI 5,928.65 -29.34 -0.49 %  
FTSE™ 100 6018.82 -33.47 -0.55 %  
Dow Jones * 12,239.89 6.74 0.06 %  
Nasdaq 100 2,360.95 0.00 0.00 %  
Nasdaq 2,789.07 0.00 0.00 %  
OMX Nordic 40 1,111.44 -7.00 -0.63 %  
OMX Helsinki 25 2,687.89 -17.66 -0.65 %  
OMX Stockholm 30 1,129.87 -4.96 -0.44 %  
OMX Copenhagen 20 463.75 -4.65 -0.99 %  
  • AFP le 10/02/2011 à 09:53

Le marché parisien en recul, les automobiles pèsent sur la tendance :

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La Bourse de Paris cédait 0,53% jeudi au cours des premières transactions dans un marché affecté par des prises de bénéfices et notamment par le recul des valeurs automobiles.

A 09H50, l'indice vedette cédait 22,74 points à 4068,14 points.

La hausse est en train de s'essoufler et une phase de consolidation s'annonce, explique le courtier Aurel soulignant la difficile séance à Wall Street mercredi.

A cela s'ajoute des résultats de sociétés toujours bons, mais certains groupes ont affiché de la prudence pour 2011.

C'est notamment le cas d'Air France qui a revu à la baisse son objectif de résultat en 2011 en raison des récentes intempéries. Le titre plonge de 6,98% à 12,65 euros.

Le titre Renault est aussi en nette baisse (-3,86% à 46,68 euros) malgré un retour dans le vert du groupe en 2010. Le titre est pénalisé par une prévision de baisse du marché automobile en France en 2011.

Du côté des hausses, Alcatel Lucent (+7,47% à 2,86 euros). Le groupe a réduit sa perte nette en 2010 à 334 millions d'euros grâce à une bonne performance au quatrième trimestre et Publicis qui gagne 4,34% à 40,74 euros après des résultats toujours performants.

Libellé Dernier Var.
EUR/USD 1.3636 -0.65%
Euribor 1 an 1.700 0%
Gold Index 1358.30 -0.40%
Pétrole New York (Light Sweet Crude Oil) 86.40 -0.36%

 

10:14 Écrit par swingteam-cc | Lien permanent | Commentaires (1) |  Facebook |

Commentaires

Maar willen zeggen dat dit is uiterst nuttig , Bedankt voor het nemen van uw tijd om dit te schrijven.

Écrit par : appliance repair | 03/10/2011

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